A closer look at the Lexus Melbourne Cup

Al Riffa will create a little slice of history if he wins Tuesday's $10 million Lexus Melbourne Cup with 59kg.

It won't be the heaviest weight carried to victory – that honour rests with Carbine, who lumped the equivalent of 65.5kg to victory in 1890 – but no horse has won under as much weight as Al Riffa since the introduction of metrics in 1972.

Seventeen have tried, with Kingston Town's second placing under 59kg and third placings to Gunsynd (60.5kg) and Vintage Crop (59kg) the only placegetters.

The feat has not been attempted since Dunaden ran 14th under 59kg in 2012 while Vinnie Roe (fourth in 2002) and Yeats (seventh in 2006) are the only others to try it this century.

It is going to become more common, mind you, after Racing Victoria this year lifted the weight scale by 1kg meaning the topweight at the release of handicaps in September has to have at least 59kg, up from 58kg last year.

Encouragingly for those at the head of the weights, the Lexus Melbourne Cup is not the bogey race for those at the top of the form guide as it once was.

Knight's Choice won under just 51.5kg last year, but the previous four editions were won by those up in the weights.

Gold Trip (2022) won under 57.5kg, half-a-kilo more than Verry Elleegant the previous year, Without A Fight had 56.5kg in 2023 and Twilight Payment 55.5kg in 2020.

You have to go back to Protectionist (56.5kg - 2014) for the previous horse to carry at least 55.5kg to victory and he and Makybe Diva, who had 55.5kg in 2004 and 58kg in 2005, are the only ones to do so in the first 20 editions of the 21st century.

Al Riffa is one of six in this year's race with 55.5kg or more, joined by Buckaroo (57kg), Arapaho (56.5kg), Vauban (56.5kg), Chevalier Rose (55.5kg) and Presage Nocturne (55.5kg).

Best Lead-Up Form

Buckaroo was only confirmed as a Melbourne Cup start last Wednesday, which was four days after his narrow second to stablemate Via Sistina in the Cox Plate (2040m).

As Racing And Sports guru Adam Blencowe pointed out on X during the week, since the turn of the millennium 39 horses have gone to the Melbourne Cup via the Cox Plate for six winners.

So the Moonee Valley feature has 24 percent of the winners despite supplying just six percent of runners.

Cup winners out of the Cox Plate include Makybe Diva and Fiorente, who started favourite at Flemington, but the others – Efficient, Green Moon, Verry Elleegant and Gold Trip – were all $17 or longer meaning the performance of Cox Plate runners has far exceeded market expectations.

The only other race to have been used as a final lead-up as many times as the Cox Plate since 2000 is the Caulfield Cup, also with six.

Four others who ran in the Caulfield Cup had a subsequent start before the Melbourne Cup, making it the most prolific producer of Melbourne Cup winners.

The top five from this year's Caulfield Cup – Half Yours, River Of Stars, Valiant King, Presage Nocturne and Royal Supremacy – will be at Flemington on Tuesday, along with Absurde (seventh), Meydaan (ninth), Middle Earth (11th), Vauban (13th) and Land Legend (last).

Favourites

Knight's Choice produced one of the biggest blowouts in the race's history when he won at $91 last year, which came nine years after Prince Of Penzance won at $101.

Before Prince Of Penzance you have to go back 75 years for the previous 100/1 shot, Old Rowley, who joined Wotan (1936) and The Pearl (1871) as winners at that price.

So, while boilovers are rare, they have been more common of late than the favourite getting the money.

It has been 12 years since a favourite was successful, which was Fiorente ($7), and he is the only market leader to win since Makybe Diva in 2005.

Protectionist ($8), Cross Counter ($9) and Without A Fight are the only winners at single-figure post-Fiorente and the average winning price is $29.

Even if you subtract the two blowout winners from the equation, the average winning price in that time is $14.

The closest to $14 in this year's market, as of midday Sunday, is Meydaan ($15) with the market headed by Half Yours ($6.50) from Valiant King ($8), Presage Nocturne ($8.50), Al Riffa ($9) and Buckaroo ($9).